Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 10.972922 12.577940 14.308372 16.309278 18.555622 20.996024 23.844242
2025-06-29 8.522956 10.674064 13.175350 16.284778 20.031504 24.384691 29.808456
2025-07-06 6.856296 9.108079 11.860328 15.446713 19.968581 25.450175 32.564100
2025-07-13 6.108690 8.540307 11.642761 15.850986 21.363585 28.287115 37.580541
2025-07-20 5.501322 8.043624 11.411034 16.139750 22.540179 30.824135 42.264126
2025-07-27 4.888231 7.456131 10.979174 16.088802 23.217087 32.701052 46.141741
2025-08-03 4.333697 6.880341 10.491809 15.890101 23.635181 34.204784 49.543231
2025-08-10 3.923641 6.465902 10.183414 15.896562 24.305963 36.049723 53.460562
2025-08-17 3.610167 6.160780 9.998705 16.050510 25.170870 38.179038 57.843846
2025-08-24 3.291017 5.811868 9.712418 16.018339 25.740208 39.889765 61.681682
2025-08-31 2.986732 5.454762 9.379157 15.879140 26.122509 41.323565 65.154895
2025-09-07 2.767710 5.216218 9.209758 15.974324 26.852337 43.285301 69.469545
2025-09-14 2.632611 5.113396 9.258911 16.432054 28.189439 46.250778 75.470537
2025-09-21 2.392665 4.802955 8.938391 16.260955 28.512544 47.673925 79.180631
2025-09-28 2.076154 4.319942 8.281549 15.472908 27.773222 47.382900 80.187886
2025-10-05 1.979834 4.237663 8.314597 15.860198 28.989103 50.231754 86.243475
2025-10-12 1.877628 4.133442 8.298323 16.155386 30.057574 52.878999 92.070692
2025-10-19 1.735578 3.936270 8.095902 16.102197 30.519305 54.545253 96.363366
2025-10-26 1.588010 3.712691 7.825567 15.904111 30.710458 55.760295 99.949152
2025-11-02 1.478980 3.557927 7.673093 15.910310 31.256646 57.584487 104.604712
2025-11-09 1.396032 3.450341 7.603177 16.064471 32.071229 59.890741 110.147653
2025-11-16 1.299472 3.303100 7.442621 16.032242 32.538777 61.610060 114.745524
2025-11-23 1.200154 3.139293 7.235227 15.892946 32.795542 62.963624 118.752591